Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine the settlement outcome. The market resolves using historical weather data from Wunderground, capturing the peak daily temperature in Celsius across all daylight and night-time hours at this official meteorological station in the Île-de-France region.

May temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15–22°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available for settlement or treating this as a baseline calibration before seasonal forecasts solidify. Comparable May markets in northern Europe show meaningful trading activity once April weather patterns emerge, as they provide early signals for late-spring thermal conditions. The current flat probability reflects the market's distance from the settlement date rather than consensus dismissal of any particular outcome.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction and operator licensing. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives fall outside gambling classification if structured as financial instruments, though prediction markets remain in a grey zone pending further guidance. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives traded by US persons, though weather prediction markets typically escape direct commodity futures regulation. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure per user, meaning traders can participate in this market without identity verification provided their cumulative position stays below that threshold—a material consideration for retail participation in European weather markets.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.