Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date, with the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC. This market carries zero crowd probability, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal trading activity to date.

Paris's May temperatures typically range between 15 and 22 degrees Celsius, though extremes have occurred. Historical records show that late May heat waves are possible but infrequent; the city recorded 28.9°C on 25 May 2003 during an exceptional warm spell. The current 0% probability may reflect traders' assessment that certain temperature bands are implausible rather than genuine uncertainty about the event itself. Comparable seasonal weather markets often show skewed probability distributions when settlement hinges on meteorological data with known historical bounds.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates in the weeks preceding late May 2026, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Anomalous warming patterns or Atlantic pressure systems could shift expectations. The reliance on Wunderground's Paris-Le Bourget station data is critical; this airport facility has consistent measurement protocols, but traders should verify the station's operational status closer to the settlement date. No regulatory announcements or scheduled events directly influence temperature outcomes, making this a pure weather-dependent contract.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.