Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

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Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily extremes for this official meteorological station located north-east of central Paris. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as highly uncertain across all temperature bands.

Historical June temperatures at Le Bourget show considerable variability. Between 2010 and 2024, 6 June highs ranged from 16°C to 28°C, with a median around 21–23°C. The 2003 European heat wave and subsequent warm summers provide reference points for extreme scenarios, though those events occurred under different atmospheric conditions. Recent Junes have trended warmer than the 30-year normal, reflecting broader European warming patterns documented by Météo-France. This historical spread means traders cannot dismiss any single temperature band as implausible without accounting for seasonal and interannual variability.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include Atlantic weather systems, high-pressure systems over continental Europe, and any late-spring heat waves developing in the fortnight before the settlement date. The UK Met Office and Météo-France issue extended forecasts from mid-May onwards; traders should monitor these for signals of anomalous warmth or cool, unsettled conditions. Solar activity and soil moisture conditions in northern France will influence local heating. No scheduled events directly trigger temperature outcomes, but the market's settlement depends entirely on actual recorded conditions at the airport station on that specific date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on June 6? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.