Highest temperature in Paris on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 26 June 2026, a date currently framed by an unprecedented European heatwave that has already pushed France to its highest national thermal average of 29.8°C. Historical precedents from this week show Paris reaching 38.4°C in early June, while neighbouring Biarritz hit 42.9°C, suggesting that a 0% crowd-implied probability for extreme heat may be misreading the current climatic momentum rather than reflecting a genuine lack of risk[1][2][5].

Traders should monitor the trajectory of the persistent heat dome forecast to continue impacting most of France through the settlement window, alongside any official red-alert escalations from Météo-France that could signal temperatures topping 40°C in the capital[8]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s final daily reading for Paris-Le Bourget, making real-time station data and the timing of the peak heat relative to the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline critical dependencies to watch[4].

Regulatory accessibility for this market is shaped by the German GlüStV, which treats such prediction contracts as gambling subject to licensing, and the US CFTC, which maintains reach over unregistered derivatives regardless of the platform’s location. The ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ threshold allows retail participants to access this specific weather market without identity verification, though it does not exempt the platform from compliance obligations under these frameworks or the potential for tax reporting on gains[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.