Highest temperature in Paris on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris’s highest temperature will be set by what the Paris–Le Bourget Airport station records before the settlement window closes, so the market is effectively a bet on the afternoon maximum rather than the city-wide “feel” of the day. Reuters reported on 19 June that France’s weather agency was already seeing temperatures in the 35–38°C range, with peaks at 40°C in parts of the country, which frames why the market has concentrated around the upper 30s rather than cooler outcomes.[6]

That makes the current 0% implied chance on “YES” hard to read as a genuine weather view and more as a market-structure quirk, especially because Polymarket’s own event page shows the distribution clustered around 37°C and 38°C rather than anything near zero.[1] Similar day-specific Paris temperature markets have resolved cleanly off the same source station and can move sharply once the local afternoon forecast firms up, so historical precedent points to a binary around a narrow temperature band, not a broad range of possibilities.[2]

For accessibility, German GlüStV considerations matter because operators and users in Germany can face stricter online gambling constraints even for prediction markets, while US CFTC reach is relevant where a market is treated as a derivatives-style contract rather than a casual wager. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” framing means small balances may be accessible with lighter identity checks, but that does not remove jurisdictional screening or source-of-funds checks if triggered; for this market, the practical catalyst is the evolution of the Paris forecast into the settlement window, not any corporate announcement, with the key dependency being the Wunderground daily high at Paris-Le Bourget.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on June 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.