Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data archive for that specific date and location, making the outcome verifiable against a single, objective source. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome already priced elsewhere, or insufficient liquidity to attract traders to alternative ranges.

New York City's June weather patterns show considerable year-to-year variance. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates June highs at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 85°F, though extremes have reached into the low 90s during heat waves. The 2021 heat dome pushed temperatures to 94°F on 20 June; conversely, cooler Junes have seen highs plateau in the mid-70s. Comparable seasonal prediction markets on similar dates have resolved across the full range of plausible outcomes, suggesting the current 0% reading reflects either a dominant consensus around a single temperature band or minimal trading activity rather than genuine certainty.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 7 June, particularly any heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, and tropical systems can alter northeastern US temperatures substantially. Long-range climate models from NOAA become more reliable within ten days of the target date. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 7 June, allowing traders to incorporate morning forecasts and overnight model updates before the window closes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.