Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground data. With the crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome at 0%, the market currently treats the specific temperature range as virtually impossible, suggesting traders expect conditions far below the threshold. This extreme pricing mirrors historical patterns where late-June highs in New York rarely breach 80°F unless a heatwave is active, as seen in 2023 when Central Park hit 80°F in early March [9]. Comparable cases from the National Weather Service show that LaGuardia’s June normals typically peak between 77°F and 85°F, with record highs rarely exceeding 92°F [2][7].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which publish real-time temperature extremes and anomalies [2]. A key catalyst is the potential arrival of a subtropical ridge or offshore heat dome, which could push temperatures above 80°F; such events are often flagged in advance by NWS forecast bulletins. Recent data from AccuWeather indicates June 2026 highs in the region are forecast between 77°F and 92°F, with overnight lows between 66°F and 73°F, suggesting volatility is possible but not guaranteed [7]. Additionally, regulatory clarity on German GlüStV and US CFTC reach affects market accessibility, particularly for platforms offering “no-KYC up to $1,500”, which allows broader participation without identity verification for smaller trades. This framework ensures compliance while maintaining open access for retail traders under the specified threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.