Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the “YES” outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range, though historical data shows June 24 has previously reached 101°F in 2025[2][4].

Historical climate normals for LaGuardia indicate a typical maximum of 84°F on 24 June, yet extreme records include 101°F on that same date in 2025 and 107°F overall in July 1966[2][7]. This volatility frames the 0% probability as potentially premature; traders should consider that past June 24 readings have occasionally breached 100°F, making the current consensus vulnerable to revision if forecast models shift toward higher extremes[3][4].

Key catalysts include updated National Weather Service forecasts and any sudden heatwave announcements from the Northeast region, which could elevate temperatures beyond seasonal averages[2]. Recent AccuWeather projections for June 2026 suggest daily highs between 77°F and 92°F, but these remain subject to rapid change depending on atmospheric pressure systems and urban heat retention patterns[3]. Traders must monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates closely, as the settlement window ends precisely at 12:00 UTC on 24 June 2026, leaving no room for post-event adjustments[2].

From a regulatory standpoint, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the market’s legal boundaries, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” clause enhances accessibility for smaller participants without compromising compliance[1]. This structure allows broader engagement while maintaining adherence to international KYC standards, ensuring the market remains open yet legally sound for diverse traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.