Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this weather prediction market. Historical precedents from late June in New York City show typical highs between 75°F and 88°F, with LaGuardia often reaching the upper end of that range due to its coastal exposure and urban heat island effect[7]. Recent forecasts for 21 June 2026 predicted highs near 79–84°F, suggesting that a 72–73°F outcome—currently the frontrunner at 97% probability—represents a notably cool deviation from seasonal norms[3]. The current crowd-implied 0% probability for temperatures of 86°F or higher aligns with the absence of an active heatwave in the immediate forecast, though such extremes are not unprecedented in peak summer[1].

Traders should monitor daily climatological reports from the National Weather Service for LaGuardia, particularly the maximum temperature readings released shortly after midnight EDT, as these serve as the official settlement data[6]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in the 7-day forecast, such as the current 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms that could suppress temperatures near 72°F[10]. Additionally, the German GlüStV regulatory framework and US CFTC reach create a layered compliance environment for prediction markets, where platforms offering “no-KYC up to $1,500” allow retail participants to access this market without identity verification, enhancing accessibility while remaining within current legal thresholds for small-scale trading. This accessibility is critical for markets with low volatility but high certainty, as it enables broader participation without triggering stricter KYC mandates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.