Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement hinges on historical weather data published by Wunderground, which aggregates hourly observations from the airport's meteorological instruments. The crowd currently assigns 100% probability to the market resolving, reflecting confidence that a temperature reading will be recorded and classified on that date.

New York City's June temperatures typically range from 75°F to 85°F, though extremes occur. Historical precedent matters here: the National Weather Service records show June highs in the low-to-mid 80s as modal outcomes, with occasional spikes into the low 90s during heat waves. The 2012 heat wave pushed June temperatures to 96°F in parts of the city; conversely, cooler Junes have peaked in the upper 70s. Traders interpreting the 100% crowd probability should note this reflects near-certainty of market settlement rather than confidence in any specific temperature band—the underlying event (a temperature reading) is virtually guaranteed.

Catalysts for temperature outcomes centre on Atlantic weather patterns and jet-stream positioning in early June 2026. The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor those releases for signs of high-pressure systems (which drive heat) or frontal passages (which suppress temperatures). El Niño or La Niña conditions, if active in 2026, influence seasonal temperature anomalies, though their predictive power at a single-day, single-location level remains limited. Regulatory accessibility: under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, weather derivatives below €500 notional exposure often fall outside strict licensing thresholds; no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD typically applies to weather prediction markets on platforms compliant with both jurisdictions, making this market accessible to retail traders without identity verification below that tier.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.