Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and location, measured in Fahrenheit. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full distribution.

New York City's June temperatures historically cluster between 75–85°F as daily highs, with occasional excursions into the low 90s during heat waves. The National Weather Service's 30-year normals for early June place the median high near 78°F at LaGuardia. Comparable June 11th observations from prior years show variability: the record high for that calendar date across the broader New York region sits around 92°F, though such extremes occur irregularly. Current market pricing at zero probability across all ranges suggests either a technical listing issue or that early traders have not yet engaged with the full outcome space.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by NOAA in May 2026, particularly Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies and jet-stream positioning, which drive June heat waves in the Northeast. The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks 8–14 days ahead; these become actionable signals in early June. LaGuardia's official observations remain the sole authoritative source, with data published daily on Weather Underground without revision delays that might complicate settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.