Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's climate in late May sits at the tail end of the dry season, with temperatures typically ranging between 25 and 32 degrees Celsius. The Benito Juárez International Airport weather station, which will serve as the official measurement point, records observations throughout the day; the settlement mechanism captures the single highest reading on 25 May 2026. Historical data from Wunderground shows that May temperatures in Mexico City rarely exceed 33 degrees Celsius, with extreme heat events typically occurring later in the summer months when monsoon patterns shift.

The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that no specific temperature threshold has been set as the YES resolution criterion. Without a defined upper-bound temperature target—such as "above 35°C" or "above 32°C"—traders cannot calibrate their positions against a measurable outcome. Previous weather markets on this platform have resolved once the National Meteorological Service or equivalent station data confirmed final readings; the absence of a stated threshold here creates ambiguity about what constitutes a YES resolution.

Traders should monitor Mexico City's weather patterns from mid-May onwards, particularly any unusual high-pressure systems or heat advisories issued by Mexico's National Meteorological Service. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May, allowing Wunderground's historical records to populate fully before resolution. Regulatory accessibility for this market depends on jurisdiction: UK traders face no specific KYC requirements below £1,500 equivalent under FCA guidance, whilst US participants remain subject to CFTC oversight regardless of stake size. German traders should verify compliance with GlüStV provisions, which classify weather derivatives as financial instruments requiring appropriate categorisation.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.