Highest temperature in London on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement relies on historical weather data logged by Weather Underground for that specific station, with the resolution window closing at noon UTC. This market carries zero crowd probability, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal trading activity to date.

London's May temperatures typically range between 15–22 °C, though outliers occur. Historical May records at or near the airport show peaks around 26–28 °C during warm spells, whilst cooler years produce maxima near 18–20 °C. The current 0% probability may reflect traders' assessment that one specific temperature band is implausible, or it could indicate insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable May weather markets in prior years have seen late-spring high-pressure systems drive temperatures above seasonal norms, particularly when Atlantic systems stall over the British Isles.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's extended outlook as May approaches, particularly any forecasts issued in the week preceding 26 May. Jet-stream positioning and Atlantic blocking patterns typically determine whether continental warm air reaches London or cooler maritime influence dominates. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under the German GlüStV framework for EU traders and falls within CFTC oversight for US participants; traders can access positions up to $1,500 without KYC verification on most prediction platforms, though individual operators may impose stricter thresholds. Settlement depends entirely on Weather Underground's historical database, making data availability the primary operational risk.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.