Highest temperature in London on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data published by Weather Underground, with the specific station providing consistent measurement across the day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no conviction in any particular temperature band, or the market may reflect early-stage liquidity constraints typical of weather derivatives with narrow geographic anchors.

London's June temperatures have historically clustered between 18–24°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C at the City Airport location. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings to 40°C across southern England, but City Airport—positioned on the Thames estuary with maritime influence—typically records 2–4°C cooler than inland central London. Comparable June settlements from 2015–2024 show the modal outcome falling in the 20–23°C band, providing a baseline against which current zero probability across all ranges warrants scrutiny.

Traders should monitor the Met Office's extended forecast from early June, as Atlantic weather systems and high-pressure positioning over Scandinavia will determine whether subtropical air reaches the UK or cooler maritime conditions persist. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 June, meaning afternoon temperature peaks will be captured but early-morning lows excluded. Any unusual atmospheric setup—such as a blocking anticyclone or tropical moisture intrusion—would shift implied probabilities materially in the days preceding the event.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.