Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific location and date, with the final figure locked in at 12:00 UTC. London City Airport sits in East London's Docklands, an urban environment that typically experiences warmer readings than surrounding areas due to the heat-island effect, which can elevate temperatures by 1–3°C relative to outer zones.

Historical June temperatures at London City Airport cluster between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting or treating this as a placeholder market pending meteorological data closer to settlement. June 2026 falls within the Atlantic hurricane season and the early phase of the Northern Hemisphere summer, when jet-stream positioning and Atlantic pressure systems drive UK weather variability. Comparable markets on UK airport temperatures have resolved across the full range of defined brackets, indicating no systematic bias toward extremes.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's seasonal outlooks and any significant Atlantic blocking patterns announced in late May 2026, as these influence whether high-pressure systems dominate the south-east. The Met Office publishes monthly forecasts roughly three weeks ahead, providing the most reliable guidance for June conditions. Real-time weather models become actionable only 10–14 days before the settlement date, making early-June forecasts the practical decision point for positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.