Highest temperature in London on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Wunderground's archive for that specific station and date, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently view certain temperature bands as implausible or are withholding positions ahead of the settlement window.

London's June temperatures have historically ranged between 15°C and 28°C, with the long-term average high around 21°C. The City Airport station, situated on the Thames estuary, typically records slightly cooler readings than central London due to proximity to water and maritime influence. Comparable June 2025 data showed a high of 24°C; June 2024 peaked at 26°C. These precedents establish a baseline against which outlier ranges—both unusually cold and unusually warm—can be assessed. The current zero probability on certain bands may reflect trader consensus that extreme heat (above 30°C) or unseasonable cold (below 12°C) are statistically unlikely for early summer in this location.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's extended forecast as June 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or Atlantic weather patterns that could drive anomalous temperatures. The Met Office publishes monthly outlooks approximately three weeks ahead, which typically carry sufficient skill for temperature range predictions. No scheduled events—industrial action, infrastructure changes, or station relocations—are known to affect the Wunderground data source. The settlement depends entirely on observed meteorological conditions and accurate historical recording at the specified station.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.