Highest temperature in London on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific location and date, with the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC. Current market pricing reflects zero probability assigned to any single outcome, suggesting either early-stage illiquidity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise.

London's June weather exhibits substantial year-on-year variance. The 30-year mean high for early June sits around 19–21°C, yet the city has recorded extremes ranging from 13°C to 32°C during this month since records began. The 2022 heatwave saw June temperatures exceed 30°C in parts of the South East, though City Airport—situated on the Thames estuary—typically runs 1–2°C cooler than central London due to maritime influence. Historical precedent suggests the most probable outcome clusters between 18–24°C, with tail-risk scenarios (sub-15°C or above 28°C) less frequent but documented.

Traders should monitor the Met Office's extended forecast from late May onwards, as Atlantic weather patterns and jet stream positioning determine whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic fronts dominate. The UK's regulatory framework for prediction markets—governed by the Gambling Commission and aligned with German GlüStV principles for cross-border operators—permits this market without KYC requirements up to £1,500 cumulative stake per user, lowering barriers to participation. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data feed; no discretionary interpretation applies.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.