Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s result will be set by the **day’s highest reading** at William P. Hobby Airport on 3 August 2026, so the key question is not the overnight low or the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off but the warmest observation reached during the local day. In late July and early August, Houston typically sits in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, with August averages around 88°F, which means a mid-90s outcome is normal and anything near 100°F is a meaningful overshoot rather than an outlier.[15][19]

The current **0% YES** crowd price looks conservative relative to recent Houston coverage, which has repeatedly pointed to a hot, mostly sunny pattern with highs in the mid-90s to around 100°F and only limited storm relief. Forecasts published around 3 August 2026 described Houston as hot and generally sunny with a high near 96°F, while local reporting said highs would flirt with 100°F through at least midweek before easing slightly later in the week.[3][17][18] For a market resolving to the airport station’s maximum, that framing matters because one afternoon spike above the quoted daily high can still determine the payout band.

From a market-access angle, the regulatory picture is relevant: German **GlüStV** restrictions can limit or block access for users in Germany, while **CFTC** reach means US-facing availability is still shaped by American derivatives and event-contract scrutiny. In practical terms, “**no-KYC up to $1,500**” usually means a small account can participate without full identity verification, but only until platform limits are reached; that improves accessibility for retail traders, though it does not remove jurisdictional checks or withdrawal controls. For this specific weather market, the main catalysts are the local forecast updates, any storm timing around the afternoon heating peak, and whether the airport station records its high before cloud cover or convection builds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Houston on August 3? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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FAQ

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