Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature for that day in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised, typically within days of the observation date. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit positions before the day's peak temperature is known with certainty.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius, with historical daily maxima clustered around 31–33°C during late spring. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity or a technical issue with market initialisation rather than genuine conviction that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable weather markets on Hong Kong Observatory data have historically resolved without delay once the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract; the institution's data release schedule is consistent and publicly documented.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives fall outside gambling licensing if structured as financial instruments; however, prediction markets remain subject to BaFin oversight. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on unregistered platforms, though weather index contracts are exempt commodities if they reference official government data—which this does. Most platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD treat weather markets as low-risk, though traders should verify their own platform's compliance posture before participation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.