Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. That figure will determine which temperature range resolves this market to "Yes". The Observatory publishes daily maximum temperatures through its Climate Information Services portal, with data finalised in the Daily Extract records. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the specified date, contingent on the Observatory releasing verified readings.

Historical Hong Kong May temperatures show considerable year-to-year variation. May maxima typically range between 28°C and 33°C, though extremes have reached 35°C in anomalous years. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be calibrated to a narrow or elevated temperature threshold—traders should cross-reference the specific range brackets against climatological norms for late May before interpreting the current odds as undervalued or overconfident. Comparable weather markets on Hong Kong Observatory data have resolved reliably once official records become available, usually within 48 hours of the settlement window.

Regulatory access to this market depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on weather events face stricter classification than political or sports markets, potentially affecting EU trader participation. US CFTC oversight applies to binary weather derivatives; however, many prediction platforms operate under exemptions for small-notional contracts. Most platforms permit non-KYC trading up to approximately $1,500 cumulative exposure, meaning this specific market may be accessible to retail traders without identity verification in certain jurisdictions, though platform terms vary. Traders should verify their local regulatory status before depositing funds.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.