Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's highest daily temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in its Daily Extract climate dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory has finalised and released the official reading, typically within days of the observation period.

Historically, Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster around 28–32°C for daily maxima, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early-season heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity for alternative ranges. Comparable markets on Hong Kong Observatory data have resolved reliably; the Observatory's measurement standards are consistent and its published records are final. June sits in the pre-monsoon transition period, when thermal variability is moderate compared to July–August peaks, narrowing the plausible range considerably.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat warnings in early June 2026. The settlement depends entirely on official publication; no alternative data sources are accepted. Regulatory access to this market varies by jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV classification requirements for derivative-linked prediction contracts; US participants fall under CFTC oversight if the platform operates as a designated contract market, though many prediction markets operate under exemptions. Non-KYC trading up to $1,500 notional exposure typically applies to spot-settled weather derivatives in certain jurisdictions, but verification of your local regulatory status is essential before trading.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.