Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official reading, sourced from the Observatory's published daily climate extract. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution itself cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its finalised data, typically within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures sit within a narrow historical band. The Observatory's records show daily maxima in early June typically range between 29 and 33 degrees Celsius, with occasional excursions to 34 degrees during heat waves. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside all offered ranges—a scenario that occurs when either an unprecedented heat event or data publication delay prevents settlement. Comparable June days from 2015 to 2024 show the Observatory's absolute daily maximum readings cluster tightly; only three instances exceeded 34 degrees in this period, making extreme outcomes statistically uncommon but not impossible given climate variability.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under differing frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV treats prediction markets as gambling products requiring state licensing; UK-domiciled platforms must comply with Gambling Commission oversight. US traders face CFTC jurisdiction over event derivatives, though the agency's enforcement focus remains selective. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold referenced in some jurisdictions does not apply uniformly here—UK and EU platforms typically require identity verification regardless of stake size, whilst certain offshore venues may permit anonymous trading below specified thresholds. Traders should verify their local regulatory position before participation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.