Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single highest reading, measured to one decimal place and published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract climate data. Settlement occurs after the Observatory publishes its finalised daily record, which typically happens within days of the observation date but may be delayed if data verification extends beyond the immediate window.

Hong Kong's June temperatures historically cluster between 28°C and 34°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing toward 36°C during particularly intense subtropical pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive no meaningful likelihood of an exceptionally high outcome within the market's defined range. Comparable June days from the past decade show considerable variance: some years deliver moderate highs in the low 30s whilst others see brief spikes driven by pre-monsoon heating. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Observatory methodology, which has remained consistent across recent years, making historical comparisons reliable for calibrating expectations.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls within the remit of the German GlüStV where EU traders participate, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to American participants engaging with prediction markets on certain platforms. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD typically permits smaller-stake positions without identity verification on compliant venues, though individual platform policies vary. Traders should verify their own jurisdiction's requirements before positioning, as weather markets remain subject to evolving regulatory interpretation across different territories.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.