Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official reading, sourced from the Observatory's published Daily Extract data once finalised. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution may be delayed pending data publication by the Observatory.

Hong Kong's June climate sits within the pre-monsoon transition period, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 29–33°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise given the eighteen-month lead time. Comparable June temperature distributions from the Observatory's archives show consistent clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius range, with occasional spikes above 34°C during particularly humid or stagnant air-mass conditions. The current implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than market dysfunction, as long-range weather prediction carries substantial variance at this temporal distance.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing authority) classifies certain prediction markets as financial instruments rather than gaming products, affecting accessibility for EU-based participants. US CFTC reach extends to binary outcome contracts offered to American residents, though weather derivatives typically fall outside direct commodity futures regulation. For traders in jurisdictions permitting no-KYC participation up to $1,500 notional exposure, this market remains accessible without identity verification, though settlement claims may trigger subsequent verification requirements depending on the platform's compliance posture.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.