Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Historical data and seasonal forecasts indicate Hong Kong is bracing for above-normal temperatures this June, with daily highs typically ranging between 30°C and 33°C during heatwaves [1][6]. AccuWeather projects June 2026 highs between 85°F and 92°F (approx. 29°C–33°C), while long-term averages settle near 30°C [2][4]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, likely because forecast models point to values exceeding that threshold or because the range itself is implausibly low given the heatwave context [1][6].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" publication schedule, as resolution depends entirely on the finalized "Absolute Daily Max" data once released [5]. Recent reports confirm a heatwave is active this week, with temperatures expected to hit 33°C from Tuesday to Friday, potentially influencing the 26 June peak [6]. The regulatory landscape also shapes accessibility: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach create compliance boundaries for prediction platforms, yet the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold allows traders to access this market without identity verification for smaller stakes, provided the platform adheres to local licensing rules [7]. This specific market remains accessible to those under the threshold, though larger positions may trigger KYC requirements depending on jurisdictional enforcement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.