Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 25 June 2026, specifically the highest degree Celsius reached that day. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, despite seasonal forecasts indicating above-normal temperatures for June through August 2026 in Hong Kong[1]. Historical data shows June highs typically range between 30°C and 34.6°C, with the year’s hottest day so far hitting 34.6°C in late June 2026[7]. Recent extreme heat warnings confirm mercury levels reaching 33.7°C earlier this month, framing the 0% probability as a potential mispricing if the forecasted above-normal trend intensifies[4].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" publication schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the "Absolute Daily Max" data is finalized[1]. Key catalysts include updates on the ENSO status and climate model adjustments that influence the above-normal temperature forecast for the region[1]. A recent report from the South China Morning Post highlighted the city’s record-breaking heat, underscoring the volatility of June temperatures and the need to watch for official weather advisories as the settlement window approaches[7].

From a regulatory perspective, this market operates under the German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) and US CFTC reach, which govern prediction market accessibility. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision allows traders to access this specific market without identity verification for stakes below that threshold, enhancing liquidity while maintaining compliance with international tax and KYC standards. This structure ensures the market remains accessible to a broad audience without compromising regulatory obligations under German and US frameworks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.