Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature for 20 June will be taken from the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once the daily extract is published, so the market will settle only after the Observatory releases that completed record. The Observatory’s seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 says Hong Kong is expected to be *above-normal in temperature*, which supports a bias towards a warm outcome rather than an unusually cool one.[1]

A 0% crowd-implied probability for the top outcome should be read cautiously because this is a single-day weather print, not a long-run average. Hong Kong’s climate data and monthly guidance suggest June highs are typically in the high 20s Celsius, while the Observatory’s own 2025 reporting noted a June absolute maximum of 35.6°C, showing that mid-30s readings are plausible in the city’s early-summer heat regime.[2][6] The current price therefore looks more like a statement about market attention than a meaningful view that the event cannot occur.

For accessibility and rule-reading purposes, the regulatory frame matters: a German participant may still face GlüStV-related gambling restrictions depending on platform status and local treatment of event contracts, while US-facing access remains shaped by the CFTC’s broad reach over derivatives and event-based products connected to US persons or US venues. On the platform side, “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means a lower-friction entry band without full identity checks below that threshold, which can make this weather market easier to access in practice, but only within the platform’s own limits and any applicable local screening.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.