Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single highest reading, measured to one decimal place and published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract dataset. Settlement occurs after the data is finalised and publicly available on the Observatory's climate information system.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28°C and 34°C, with historical daily maxima rarely breaching 35°C during that month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range definitions or treating this as a calibration exercise. Comparable June markets in subtropical regions show that extreme heat events—those pushing above 36°C—occur in fewer than 5% of years, making outlier ranges appropriately priced lower. The current probability distribution reflects baseline climatology rather than any specific forecast anomaly.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily weather data on a fixed schedule; traders should monitor the Observatory's official releases and any alerts issued by the Hong Kong Meteorological Department in the weeks preceding 17 June. Regulatory accessibility varies by jurisdiction: under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives face stricter classification; US CFTC reach extends to certain prediction market contracts depending on settlement mechanism and trader location. For UK-based traders, markets under £1,500 notional exposure typically fall outside standard KYC thresholds on compliant platforms, though individual operators set their own limits. The actual temperature outcome is meteorologically determined and independent of market sentiment.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.