Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure in its Daily Extract dataset. Settlement occurs after the Observatory finalises and publishes the data, which typically happens within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon atmospheric conditions. Historical data shows mid-June daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C, with occasional excursions above 34°C during heat waves or tropical systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder until meteorological models converge closer to the settlement window. Comparable June markets in prior years have seen meaningful probability shifts only in the final two weeks, when medium-range forecasts gain reliability.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone advisories issued in early June 2026, as these directly influence atmospheric circulation and temperature extremes. The UK Financial Conduct Authority's classification of weather derivatives as unregulated instruments means this market operates outside standard KYC thresholds; traders under the German GlüStV framework or US CFTC reach should verify their own jurisdictional status before participation. Real-time satellite data and upper-air analysis from the Observatory become actionable signals roughly seven to ten days before the settlement date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.