Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure in its Daily Extract dataset. Settlement occurs after the Observatory publishes finalised data, which typically follows within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster around 28–32°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C during this month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently view certain temperature thresholds as implausible for that specific date, though June sits within the pre-monsoon season when heat can intensify. Comparable June days from 2015–2024 show variability: some years peaked near 30°C whilst others reached 33–34°C depending on wind patterns and cloud cover. The absence of trading activity may reflect either low perceived volatility or insufficient liquidity rather than genuine certainty about the outcome.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls outside CFTC derivatives oversight in the US, as it references a non-financial index (meteorological data). Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on weather events remain largely unregulated provided operators maintain appropriate segregation of funds. For UK traders, the market's accessibility depends on the host platform's KYC thresholds; many permit positions up to £1,500 without full identity verification, though settlement and withdrawal may require later compliance. Traders should confirm their platform's specific policy before committing capital, as regulatory treatment of weather prediction markets continues to evolve across jurisdictions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.