Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official reading, drawn from the Observatory's published Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution itself cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes the data, typically within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical daily maxima clustering between 29°C and 33°C during the early monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological anomaly; comparable weather markets on established platforms show similar flat distributions when settlement dates lie more than eighteen months ahead and no specific temperature bands have yet been defined. Historical Observatory records from June 2015–2025 show only two instances of temperatures exceeding 34°C in this month, both occurring during unusual heat waves.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña advisories from the World Meteorological Organisation, as these influence regional temperature patterns six to twelve months in advance. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and long-range outlooks on its website; any significant revision to 2026 summer projections would merit reassessment. Regulatory accessibility varies by jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV restrictions on certain prediction markets, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments, though many weather prediction markets operate under exemptions. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure typically do so under regulatory safe harbours for small-stake prediction contracts, though this market's final accessibility depends on the host platform's licensing and user geography.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.