Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once the meteorological data is finalised and released. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its records, typically within days of observation.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster around 28–32 °C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35 °C in that month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders view this as a baseline-expectation market where the outcome depends entirely on seasonal norms and any anomalous weather systems. Comparable June days from the past decade show that extreme heat (above 36 °C) occurs in fewer than 5% of cases; the crowd's assessment reflects this statistical rarity rather than any forecast of an unusually cool or warm day.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather-derivative market operates under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing authority) may classify certain prediction markets as gaming contracts requiring specific licensing; UK traders face FCA oversight if the platform holds relevant permissions. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on unregistered platforms, though weather derivatives occupy a grey zone. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure per user, which for this market means casual participants can trade without identity verification up to that threshold, though larger positions trigger standard compliance checks.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.