Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract dataset. Settlement occurs after the Observatory finalises and publishes the data, which typically happens within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are highly predictable within narrow bands. Historical data shows daily maxima in mid-June cluster between 29–33°C, with occasional spikes to 34–35°C during early monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper threshold (likely 35°C or higher) to be breached, or that the crowd is pricing in a near-certain outcome at a lower range. Comparable June datasets from 2015–2024 show only three instances of temperatures exceeding 34°C on any single day in that month, establishing a baseline for assessing tail-risk probabilities.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under different jurisdictions depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing statute) treats prediction markets as wagering products requiring state approval; UK-domiciled platforms must comply with Gambling Commission rules on fair odds and consumer protection. US CFTC oversight applies to binary options and derivatives on physical commodities, though weather contracts occupy a grey zone. Most platforms offering this market operate under no-KYC thresholds up to $1,500 per user, meaning traders can participate without identity verification below that stake level—a material accessibility factor for retail participation in niche weather markets.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.