Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once the meteorological data is finalised. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its confirmed figures, typically within 24–48 hours of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster predictably around 28–32°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C in early June. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces consistent patterns: the southwest monsoon intensifies through June, bringing higher humidity and occasional heavy rainfall that can suppress peak temperatures. Comparable early-June days from the past decade show the 30–32°C band as modal, with extreme heat (above 34°C) occurring in fewer than 15% of cases. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder pending liquidity.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in the week preceding 11 June, as these significantly alter temperature trajectories. The Observatory publishes nine-day outlooks and monthly climate summaries; any advisory of unusual heat or storm systems would shift expectations. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls under German GlüStV oversight if accessed from Germany, whilst US CFTC reach applies to US persons regardless of location. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD means traders can access this specific market without identity verification up to that stake limit, though aggregate exposure across all markets on the platform may trigger higher compliance requirements.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.