Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market settles to whichever temperature range bracket contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once data is finalised. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its confirmed figures, typically within one to two days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are historically consistent within a narrow band. The Observatory's climate records show June daily maxima cluster between 29°C and 32°C in most years, with extreme readings above 34°C occurring in roughly one in ten Junes during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either high confidence in a specific range or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will capture the actual reading. Comparable weather markets on established platforms show that temperature settlement disputes are rare when using official observatory data, though the one-decimal precision requirement means readings of 29.5°C versus 29.6°C will resolve to different brackets.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts released in May 2026 and any tropical cyclone activity in early June, as both influence daily maxima. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks on its website; any El Niño or La Niña advisories from June onwards could shift temperature expectations. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV rules if accessed from Germany and falls within CFTC jurisdiction if US persons participate; however, the sub-$1,500 no-KYC threshold for many platforms means individual traders can access temperature prediction markets without identity verification up to that stake level, simplifying entry for casual participants.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.