Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once data is finalised. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution itself depends on the Observatory releasing verified figures—typically available within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are historically consistent. Daily maxima in early June average 29–31°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 34°C or falling below 27°C across the past three decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be specified or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification of which temperature bands qualify as YES outcomes. Without defined thresholds, the market cannot meaningfully settle; historical precedent shows such weather markets require explicit upper and lower bounds to function.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on weather events fall outside gaming licensing if structured as information contracts rather than wagering products. US CFTC oversight applies only if the platform operates as a designated contract market or derivatives exchange; most peer-to-peer prediction platforms avoid this classification. For traders in no-KYC jurisdictions where positions under $1,500 USD avoid customer identification requirements, this low-stakes weather contract remains accessible, though settlement delays from the Hong Kong Observatory could extend the resolution timeline beyond the stated window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.