Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date historically prone to thunderstorms and heavy rain that often suppress extreme heat. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, reflecting a market consensus that the day’s weather will likely remain below the highest resolution threshold, consistent with June’s typical pattern of 31°C highs and frequent downpours rather than record-breaking heatwaves[1][3].

Historical data shows Guangzhou’s highest recorded temperature in June reached 36.6°C, yet this extreme occurred during rare, sustained sunny periods, whereas recent years like May 2026 saw peaks of 36.3°C amid continuous sunshine[1][4]. The current 0% probability aligns with comparable cases where June 27 delivered thunderstorms and 31°C averages, suggesting traders should view the low probability as a rational assessment of seasonal norms rather than an anomaly[3].

Traders must monitor the National Meteorological Centre of China’s daily forecasts for typhoon warnings or subtropical high-pressure shifts, which could abruptly alter temperature trajectories[1]. A recent report from People’s Daily noted Guangzhou’s recent continuous sunny days pushed temperatures to 36.3°C, but June typically introduces typhoons and heavy rain that counter such extremes[4]. Regulatory accessibility remains unaffected by German GlüStV or US CFTC rules for this market, as “no-KYC up to $1,500” permits immediate participation without identity verification, ensuring broad access for retail traders regardless of jurisdiction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.