Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, with data sourced from Wunderground. Historical patterns for mid-June in Chongqing show daytime highs typically ranging between 27°C and 33°C, often reaching 35°C on sunny days, while humidity remains high at 40–70% [1][9]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that temperatures rarely fall below 23°C even during cooler intervals, making the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range appear inconsistent with the region’s established thermal behaviour [1][7].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and any announcements regarding thunderstorm activity, as June in Chongqing frequently includes sudden downpours that can temporarily lower peak temperatures [6]. The settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground dataset for the ZUCK station, meaning any gaps or delays in data transmission could affect resolution timing. Recent climate reports confirm that mid-June to mid-September is consistently hot and muggy, with average daytime temperatures near 28.7°C, reinforcing the expectation of high heat on the settlement date [7].

From a regulatory perspective, this market’s accessibility is shaped by German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach, particularly regarding the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold that allows smaller traders to participate without identity verification. While these frameworks do not constitute legal advice, they define the operational boundaries for platforms offering such prediction markets, ensuring compliance with evolving tax and KYC standards across jurisdictions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.