Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport’s highest temperature on 20 June 2026 will be set by the day’s observed maximum at the airport station, not by the city-wide average, so short-lived afternoon heat and local cloud cover matter more than the broader monthly climate. June in Chengdu is typically warm to hot, with guide and forecast sources putting average highs around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, and some June forecasts extending into the low 30s on warmer days.[2][4][7]

The current 0% implied probability looks extreme against that seasonal baseline, because comparable June references for Chengdu suggest a material chance of at least one reading landing in the relevant temperature bands rather than an outright sub-zero outcome. Historical climate summaries also describe Chengdu’s hot season as running from mid-May into September, with average daily highs above 79°F, which is consistent with a city where the resolving temperature range is usually reached through ordinary summer heat rather than rare spikes.[5][3]

For accessibility, a “no-KYC up to $1,500” structure generally means a trader can open and use the market without identity checks until cumulative activity crosses that threshold, which lowers friction for small positions but does not remove platform monitoring or withdrawal controls. Regulatory context matters: German GlüStV rules can affect whether residents can access or legally participate in certain betting-style products, while US CFTC reach is relevant because prediction markets touching event contracts can face scrutiny where products are offered to US users; the practical effect is that accessibility depends on both residence and venue policy, not just the market’s own settlement rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.