Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport’s **high for 4 August** is the settlement point here, using the day’s *highest recorded temperature* at that station in degrees Celsius. August is typically Chengdu’s hottest month, with long-run averages around 29.8–31°C and frequent rain, so intraday humidity and cloud cover matter as much as raw heat in shaping the final print.[1][6][8]

The crowd’s 0% YES reading looks detached from the climatology. Comparable August references for Chengdu put typical highs near 30–32°C, while forecast-style snapshots for early August have often clustered in the high 20s to low 30s, with occasional peaks above 33°C and, in hotter years, much higher extremes. Historical context also matters: Chengdu’s all-time maximum is reported at 39°C, showing that a materially hotter-than-average day is possible, but not routine.[2][4][11]

For traders, the key catalysts are the airport station’s live observations, any late-day convective rain, and whether the daily maximum is logged before the following day’s first datapoint appears, because the market only accepts revisions within that window.[4][12] On accessibility, German GlüStV rules can make offshore prediction markets difficult to access from Germany if they are treated as unauthorised gambling products, while the US CFTC can reach activity that targets or serves US persons even when the platform is based elsewhere; “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means small withdrawals or cumulative activity may be processed without identity checks, but it does not remove jurisdictional limits, geoblocking, or source-of-funds checks if thresholds are crossed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

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Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

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No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).