Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific location and date. Early June in Beijing typically sees temperatures between 25–32°C as the city transitions into summer, though heat waves can push readings considerably higher. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either uncertain about which range will resolve or have not yet engaged with this market in volume.

Historical temperature records for Beijing in early June show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, June 9th highs ranged from 23°C to 34°C, reflecting both typical seasonal patterns and occasional heat events. The 0% probability reading may reflect the market's early stage rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will occur; comparable weather markets typically see meaningful probability distribution across multiple outcome ranges once trading activity accumulates. Traders should note that Beijing's urban heat island effect can elevate readings at the airport station relative to surrounding areas.

Key variables affecting the outcome include atmospheric pressure systems moving across northern China in early June and any established heat dome patterns in the weeks preceding settlement. The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts and weekly outlooks that traders can cross-reference against Wunderground's historical data. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 9 June 2026, aligning with the end of the calendar day in Beijing. Regulatory accessibility for this market depends on jurisdiction: German traders should note GlüStV classification requirements, whilst US traders face CFTC reach considerations. Markets under $1,500 notional value typically operate without KYC requirements in many jurisdictions, though individual circumstances vary.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.