Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily extremes for that specific meteorological station. Beijing's June climate typically sees daytime highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no outcome will materialise, a position worth scrutinising against seasonal norms and any emerging forecasts.

Historical June temperatures at Beijing's airport station show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs ranged from 26°C to 37°C on mid-June dates, with an average clustering around 30–31°C. The current zero probability may reflect either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable weather markets on this venue have typically seen probabilities shift materially once forecasts enter the 10–14 day window; traders should expect movement as June 2026 approaches and meteorological models gain precision.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable and remains subject to CFTC oversight regarding US-domiciled participants. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to individual positions on this market, meaning traders can establish exposure without identity verification up to that stake level. Beyond that threshold, standard KYC documentation becomes mandatory. Settlement timing closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, allowing Wunderground's final daily record to be confirmed before payout determination.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.