Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 15 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical database. June mid-month temperatures in Beijing typically range between 28–35°C, though heat waves can push readings above 37°C. The settlement mechanism relies on a single daily maximum observation, making this market sensitive to both seasonal patterns and anomalous weather events occurring within the 24-hour window.

Historical June data from Beijing shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, mid-June highs ranged from 26°C in cooler years to 38°C during heat waves, with an approximate median around 31–32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or have not yet engaged with this market. Comparable weather markets typically see clustering around seasonal norms, with tail probabilities assigned to extreme scenarios. The absence of trading activity here reflects early-stage market formation rather than consensus dismissal of any particular outcome range.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific influence East Asian summer patterns; current neutral conditions suggest near-normal temperatures are more probable than extremes. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 June, creating a hard deadline for Wunderground data availability. Regulatory accessibility varies: German GlüStV frameworks generally permit weather derivatives without specific licensing below certain notional thresholds, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to US persons regardless of market location. Most platforms offering this market without KYC up to $1,500 USD do so under exemptions for small-value prediction contracts, though traders should verify their own jurisdiction's rules before participation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.