Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. The National Weather Service operates the official observation station at KATL, and Wunderground's historical database aggregates those readings. Atlanta's late May climate typically produces highs between 82–92°F, though extremes have occurred; the record high for 25 May is 95°F (set in 1941), whilst cooler outliers have dipped to 68°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive no meaningful likelihood of an outcome at one end of the range spectrum—most likely the extreme high or low brackets—though this reflects positioning rather than meteorological impossibility.

Historical May 25 temperatures in Atlanta show clustering around 85–88°F across recent decades, with roughly 70% of observations falling within the 80–90°F band. Comparable late-spring days in the Southeast exhibit high sensitivity to upper-level ridge positioning and Gulf moisture availability; a stalled low-pressure system or tropical moisture surge could push readings toward 93–95°F, whilst a rare cool outbreak could suppress highs into the low 70s. The current crowd assessment may undervalue tail-risk scenarios, particularly given the settlement window's two-year lead time and inherent forecast uncertainty at that horizon.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under both US CFTC jurisdiction (as a binary outcome contract) and German GlüStV oversight if offered to EU residents. Traders in the UK and non-EU jurisdictions face no KYC requirement up to $1,500 notional exposure per market, lowering friction for small-stake participation. Wunderground's historical data feed, whilst reliable, occasionally requires manual verification against NWS archives; traders should confirm final settlement against the official KATL station record once 26 May data becomes available.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.