# of views of next MrBeast gaming video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The key event is whether MrBeast Gaming posts its next YouTube video and how many views it records in the first 24 hours, with the market only resolving after that full day has elapsed. Because the channel states that new MrBeast or MrBeast Gaming videos are scheduled every Saturday at noon Eastern time, traders are watching for an upload within that cadence rather than relying on early view velocity alone.[10]

The 0% crowd-implied YES probability sits against a creator whose uploads can still clear very large day-one numbers when the audience is primed, with recent MrBeast-branded projects showing broad reach across YouTube and Prime Video. MrBeast Gaming’s recent long-form uploads have been into the tens of millions of views, and the wider MrBeast ecosystem has remained highly visible through Beast Games season 2 on Prime Video, which Amazon says is streaming in more than 240 countries and territories.[6][1] For comparison cases, prediction markets on creator-view counts often hinge less on the headline fanbase and more on whether the upload is on time, whether it is a standalone gaming video, and whether the channel’s recommendation momentum is intact at release.

For accessibility, the no-KYC up to $1,500 structure means a trader can usually gain exposure without full identity verification until cumulative activity crosses that threshold, which lowers the friction for smaller positions but does not change the underlying settlement rules. The regulatory frame is more material in Germany and the US: under the German GlüStV, online betting-style products can raise licensing and consumer-access issues, while US CFTC reach can matter where a market is treated as a derivatives-style contract rather than simple entertainment speculation. For this market, the practical catalysts are straightforward: a scheduled Saturday upload, any late change to the posting cadence, and whether the next MrBeast Gaming video is delayed beyond the June 30 deadline, which would force the lowest bracket by the market’s own terms.[10][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track # of views of next MrBeast gaming video on day 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.