Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's permanent departure from the presidency before 30 June 2026 remains a low-probability event, with the 1% crowd assessment reflecting the constitutional and political barriers to removal. Resignation would require voluntary action; removal would require either conviction in an impeachment trial (necessitating a two-thirds Senate majority) or invocation of the 25th Amendment Section 4 (requiring Vice President agreement plus a congressional supermajority to override). Temporary suspension under the 25th Amendment Section 3 does not satisfy this market's settlement criteria, which specifies only permanent cessation of office.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Richard Nixon resigned in August 1974 facing near-certain impeachment conviction; no sitting president has been removed via the 25th Amendment. Andrew Johnson survived impeachment in 1868 by a single Senate vote; no subsequent president has faced conviction. The current Republican Senate composition and Trump's political standing within the party make legislative removal mechanisms exceptionally unlikely within the eighteen-month window. Medical incapacity triggering the 25th Amendment remains possible but statistically rare for a sitting president.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments in ongoing legal proceedings, particularly sentencing outcomes in New York state cases and any federal criminal trials, which could theoretically create political pressure for resignation. Congressional composition changes following the 2026 midterms occur after this market's settlement date and therefore carry no direct relevance. Announcements of resignation intent—whether public statements or leaked communications—would trigger immediate resolution regardless of implementation timing. The regulatory framework for this market varies by jurisdiction: UK traders face FCA oversight; US traders encounter CFTC reach over prediction markets, whilst German traders should verify compliance with GlüStV gambling licensing requirements. No-KYC access up to £1,500 applies on certain platforms, though higher stakes typically require identity verification.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.