Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Liudmila Samsonova, the Russian left-hander ranked in the top 20, faces Swiss competitor Jil Teichmann in an early-round Roland Garros WTA encounter scheduled for 24 May 2026. The match settlement hinges on a straightforward advancement outcome; if either player withdraws, the match is cancelled, or play extends beyond seven days without resolution, the market resolves 50-50. The current zero probability assigned to Samsonova suggests either technical pricing or an expectation of non-completion, though both players have competed regularly on the WTA circuit in recent seasons.

Samsonova's head-to-head record against Teichmann and their respective clay-court form provide the primary historical lens. Samsonova has shown inconsistent results on slower surfaces, whilst Teichmann, despite lower ranking, has demonstrated resilience in early-round clay matches. Comparable early-round markets at Roland Garros typically reflect seeding differentials and recent tournament performance rather than extreme probability skew; a 0% reading warrants scrutiny of scheduling or withdrawal announcements prior to the settlement window closure on 31 May.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations, injury reports from both camps, and any weather delays affecting the tournament schedule. The WTA's official website and ATP/WTA injury bulletins typically flag player status changes 48 hours before scheduled play. Additionally, under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, prediction markets on individual sports matches remain accessible to UK and EU traders without KYC requirements up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500 USD equivalent) in cumulative position value, though settlement verification still requires accurate player identification at resolution.

Methodology

We track Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.