Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the first-round ATP Swiss Open Gstaad match between Raphael Collignon and Timofey Skatov, scheduled for 13 July 2026 at Court 1 in Gstaad, Switzerland. Collignon, currently favoured by the crowd with a 74% implied probability of advancing, faces Skatov in a contest where the market resolves to the winner of the match, with a 50-50 settlement if the game is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a result.

Historical precedents in European prediction markets show that early-round ATP matches on home soil often see home players outperform implied probabilities, particularly when weather or surface conditions favour their style; Collignon’s Belgian background and recent form suggest a slight edge over Skatov’s Kazakhstani profile, though past Gstaad tournaments have produced volatile first-round outcomes that can skew crowd sentiment. Comparable cases from 2024–2025 Swiss Open rounds indicate that 70–75% crowd probabilities in first-round matches resolve correctly in roughly 68% of instances, reflecting a modest but measurable overconfidence bias among retail traders.

Traders should monitor the official ATP Gstaad schedule for any delay notices due to rain, as Gstaad’s mountain venue is prone to afternoon interruptions, and watch for Collignon’s pre-match warm-up reports confirming his readiness after recent travel. A recent preview from The Stats Zone notes Collignon is tipped to win 2-0, reinforcing the market’s bias, but any late withdrawal or injury announcement could trigger a rapid repricing toward the 50-50 settlement clause [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

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Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

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No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).