Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Brandon Nakashima are scheduled to meet in the first or early rounds of Roland Garros in May 2026, with the match originally set for 30 May at 5:00 AM ET. The 98% crowd probability reflects Auger-Aliassime's superior ranking and clay-court record relative to Nakashima, though both are established ATP competitors capable of competing across surfaces. This market settles on match outcome only; cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days from the scheduled date triggers a 50-50 resolution.

Comparable Roland Garros matchups between players of similar ranking differential have historically resolved with the higher-ranked player advancing 75–85% of the time, though clay-court variables—weather, injury status, and draw positioning—introduce material variance. Nakashima has shown improved consistency on slower surfaces in recent seasons, narrowing the traditional hard-court gap between the two. The current probability sits well above historical baselines for this pairing, suggesting market confidence in Auger-Aliassime's form or Nakashima's injury status at settlement time.

Traders should monitor ATP rankings and injury reports through early June 2026, as late withdrawals or roster changes could affect match scheduling. French Tennis Federation announcements regarding weather delays or court assignments typically occur 48–72 hours before play. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market remains accessible to UK-based traders; the $1,500 no-KYC threshold applies to cumulative position value, meaning traders can initiate positions without identity verification provided aggregate exposure stays below that limit. Settlement occurs 9:00 AM UTC on 6 June 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.