Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Military vessels from various nations regularly transit the Strait of Hormuz, a 54-nautical-mile waterway between Iran and Oman that handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade. The market asks whether specific countries will send warships through this chokepoint by June 2026. Current crowd pricing at 4% YES reflects scepticism that new or notable transits will occur within the settlement window, though the strait sees routine passages by US Navy destroyers, frigates, and carrier strike groups, as well as occasional vessels from allied nations conducting freedom-of-navigation operations.

Historical precedent suggests warship transits through Hormuz occur regularly without triggering major geopolitical incidents. The US Navy has maintained a continuous presence since the 1980s, whilst allied navies—including British, French, and Australian vessels—have conducted transits during regional operations. The low probability may reflect market participants viewing the question as requiring *new or additional* transits beyond routine operations, or uncertainty about which countries the market specifically names. Previous tensions, including the 2019 tanker attacks and 2020 Soleimani killing, did not substantially disrupt naval passage patterns.

Traders should monitor announcements from regional naval commands, particularly US Fifth Fleet statements and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps activity, which can signal heightened tensions affecting transit patterns. Recent reporting from Reuters and the Financial Times has tracked increased Iranian naval exercises near the strait. The settlement hinges on credible confirmation from government sources or broad media consensus; routine transits by established naval powers may resolve as YES depending on market specifications, whilst novel transits by non-traditional actors would more clearly trigger resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.